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Stocks Climb A ‘Wall Of Worry,’ Though Humpty-Dumpty Investors Can Fall Off...
Macy’s, JC Penney, Sears. Does anyone seriously believe that these corporations will thrive in the years ahead? They’re far more likely to go belly up than to turn things around. Many investors seem...
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The Slowdown in Lending May Become Problematic For Stock Investors
In the current business cycle, the Treasury bond yield curve has rarely been flatter. The spread between 30s and 2s is a paltry 1.4% and the spread between 10s and 2s is a meager 0.8%. Historically,...
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The Years 2000 And 2017: There’s A Whole Lot Of Rhyming Going On
This week, CNBC’s Kelly Evans interviewed one of the most well-respected billionaire hedge fund managers in history, Julian Robertson. The co-founder of Tiger Management discussed global central bank...
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What Will Eventually Wobble The Stock Market?
I asked my Vice President at Pacific Park Financial, Inc. if he thought that anything might wobble the stock market. Rob said, “Extra-terrestrials could invade the planet. That MIGHT send the Dow down...
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If Familiarity Breeds Contempt, What Do Debt And Complacency Breed?
Back in 1999, low inflation and fabulous headline unemployment (<5%) warranted a Federal Reserve overnight lending rate of 5.0%. Today, low inflation and desirable headline unemployment (<5%)...
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Is Warren Buffett Leading Investors Or Misleading Investors?
There are no shortage of Warren Buffett quotes on successful investing. The one that never fails to reassure me? “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” If one of the...
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Three Reasons Why The ‘FANG’ Phenomenon Will End Badly
Those who do not wish to draw any parallels between today’s stock market and the 1999-2000 tech stock bubble typically claim that “All of those turn-of-the-century dot-coms weren’t making any money....
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Don’t Put All Of Your Eggs In The ‘Tax Cuts Are Coming’ Basket
It does not matter what you call it or how you explain it. The Trump trade. A tax reform rally. Heck, you can attribute the longest uptrend in history without a 3% pullback to global quantitative...
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Have You Been Blinded By The Stock Light?
I may not be a passionate fan when it comes to America’s pastime. Still, baseball is serving up a seventh game of a World Series. It rarely gets better than that. Who would have believed that the Los...
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Are The Ultra-Rich Predicting A Stock Market Swoon?
I readily acknowledge that I know precious little about the world of art. In fact, I would struggle to distinguish Picasso from Velazquez, Van Gogh from Monet, or DaVinci from Rembrandt. On the other...
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Managing Assets When Markets Become Irrationally Effervescent
When I co-hosted a national talk radio show in 2000, tech stock inquiries came furious and fast. JDSU or Sun Micro? Powerwave or Cisco? Webvan or theGlobe.com? Few expressed concern about a recession....
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If You Bought The Tax Reform Rumors, Will You Be Selling The Tax Cut News?
Since the Great Recession, each time that the U.S. economy bogged down, the U.S. Federal Reserve began printing additional electronic dollar credits to acquire billions in assets (a.k.a. “quantitative...
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Speculative Frenzy Smells More And More Like 2000
Scores of extremely bullish investors insist that the financial markets today do not resemble the technology stock craze near the tail end of the late 1990s. That position is getting more difficult to...
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Warning: Side Effects May Include Rapid Stock Price Depreciation
Over the last decade, the most influential central banks around the world have printed electronic currency credits to acquire $14 trillion in assets. The effect on stocks, bonds and real estate?...
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Regression to the Trend: Will S&P 500 Prices Ever Revisit Their Mean?
Richard Russell, an exceptionally well-regarded Dow Theorist, explained that a stock market can do absolutely anything over short periods of time. Yet, over longer periods, the greatest certainty is...
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Asset Bubbles Lead To Recessions… Not The Other Way Around
Stock market bearishness is practically extinct. You would have to travel back in time to 1987 to find a greater level of disparity between investment adviser bulls (64.4%) and bears (13.3%). The...
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Nothing To Fear In The Stock Market But The Fear Of Missing Out Itself
I have quite a few clients in their eighties and a number in their late eighties. That is not particularly surprising when your client base is chock-full of retirees and near retirees. What did...
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State of the Stock Market (#SOTSM)
The U.S. stock market has rarely notched 150 trading days without back-to-back 0.5%-plus declines. It happened on one occasion prior to the financial crisis in 2007. It also occurred once in the...
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Shock the “Short S&P 500 Volatility” Monkey
A top-tier financial web site interviews me at the start of every year. The interviewer typically asks me about specific securities, asset allocation, economic backdrop as well as the impact of events...
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Are American Stocks Great Again?
The U.S Department of the Treasury currently forecasts that the national debt will reach the $25 trillion mark by the 3rd quarter of 2020. That’s just two and a half years from now. What is $25...
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